Must Sell War

 

Europe Continues To Interfere In Ukraine's Last Chance For Peace

For those who understand the basics of attrition warfare, the outcome of the fight in Ukraine was obvious a long time ago.  Russia's superior logistical position along with its grinding offensive tactics have worn down Ukraine's defenses and left the country with a desperate manpower shortage.  The recent capture of the vital hub of Pokrovsk has now opened the door to an accelerating Russian advance.

The Russian offensive is gaining significant ground from Pokrovsk to the north, all the way to Kupiansk.  The strategic city of Siversk is now largely under control of Russia according to geo-location mapping.  Myrnohrad, also near Pokrovsk, has been flattened by artillery and FABs.  

Ukraine's ability to stall Russian forces is faltering, allowing the Kremlin to move troops in a swift manner closer to maneuver warfare instead of the slow and methodical process of attrition.  Ukraine continues to deny they are in trouble, but the writing is on the wall. 

This helps to explain Europe's sudden interest in "peace negotiation", but not for the purposes of establishing actual peace.  First and foremost, we know Europe is not interested in peace because they largely refuse to engage directly with Putin and Russia in negotiations. 

Instead, European leaders continue to pretend as if they can establish a peace deal unilaterally without involving the Kremlin.  They have also consistently tried to sabotage Donald Trump's efforts for a quick resolution by deluding Zelensky with promises of access to Russian assets. 

The Europeans have in fact announced their plan to confiscate Russian assets that have been frozen since the beginning of the war, using them to help fund Ukraine's military and infrastructure.  Trump had initially intended to use those assets as a bargaining chip to convince the Russians to support his peace plan.

Zelensky and European officials have spoken often about sustaining the war for at least another two years, which is foolish given the current state of Ukraine's front lines.  Russia does not need to conquer vast swaths of territory to win, all Russia needs to do is kill Ukrainian troops until there aren't enough left to maintain a proper defensive line.  After that, Zelensky will lose the whole country, not just the eastern third.   

Europe also continues to push for troop deployments, using NATO as a "peacekeeping force" as part of the negotiations.  Putin has repeatedly stated that this would lead to wider war.  After all, it was the encroachment of NATO into Ukraine over a decade ago that ultimately triggered the current war.  

In a recent admission, Trump asserted that there will be no more handouts from the US to Ukraine, ending speculation on whether or not the hundreds of billions of dollars in US aid would continue under his administration.  The statement comes just after Trump's revelation that Zelensky "had not even read the US peace proposal" despite other Ukrainian officials supporting the plan.

NATO and EU leaders claim that Russia is in financial peril due to sanctions and other measures, but there isn't enough evidence to support this theory.  Russia has seen a slowdown in GDP and PMI,

Sick And Tired

 

U.S. Military Readiness Is Under Threat By Doctor Shortages

Authored by Jeff Morris via RealClearDefense,

According to the Association of the U.S. Army, the crisis of doctor shortages has been increasing for years, which negatively affects military readiness. Their own report cited the inability of the Army, Navy, and Air Force to recruit and retain enough doctors. As the number of military physicians has consistently decreased, the armed services have been forced to close some hospitals, to lower other hospitals to clinic status, and to use nurses and technicians as "physician extenders.”

More recently, leading U.S. physicians have spoken out about the largest healthcare monopoly in the country that we have ever seen, which also involves our medical residency programs. This too affects military readiness.

A renowned doctor recently wrote an OpEd in the Wall Street Journal scratching the surface on this crisis. He described how the private American Board of Medical Specialties (ABMS) acts like a regulator, hamstringing physicians with endless fees, paperwork, and testing.

Not only doctors are sounding the alarm. Adam Candeub, leading antitrust attorney and current General Counsel to the FCC, stated in his white paper titled The American Board of Medical Specialties: Certification and The Need for Antitrust Enforcement, that “board certification serves as medicine’s gatekeeper.” He went on to say that “competition among organizations providing these certification services drives innovation and lowers healthcare costs. The domination of the American Board of Medical Specialists (ABMS) over certification is dramatically raising certification costs and indirectly accreditation costs throughout medicine, decreasing access to physicians, increasing already exploding medical budgets, and reducing healthcare innovation.”

The urgent issue is this self proclaimed “Gold Standard and Gatekeeper” has created the largest monopoly in physician care that we’ve ever seen. All the while contributing to our current and growing physician shortages. It is important to note that testing is a key component that ensures physicians meet the very standards needed for higher quality care for all Americans. 

The ABMS has long been working with the Accreditation Council on Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) to corner the market on physician board certification. Their collusive relationship, which began when ABMS co-founded the ACGME, can be considered one of the root causes of physician shortages throughout the country, the military, and within key specialties. The impact can be seen in every aspect of our health care system, greatly contributing to shortages in specialties within primary care, especially access to much-needed specialties for 21st-century medicine throughout rural America. These include emergency and integrative medicine as well as family medicine obstetrics.

Southern DMZ In Effect

 

Land Along Southern Border Is Transferred to Navy To Become Part Of 'National Defense Area'

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Trump administration said on Dec. 10 that it would transfer roughly 760 acres of public land along the U.S.-Mexico border in California to the Navy for three years to support border security operations.

The U.S. border with Mexico near San Diego on Jan. 31, 2025. Jae C. Hong/AP Photo

While announcing the decision Wednesday, the Interior Department said the land would become part of a “National Defense Area,” or militarized zone, to bolster immigration enforcement.

The land stretches from roughly a mile west of the California-Arizona state line to the western edge of the Otay Mountain Wilderness Area in San Diego and Imperial counties, according to the Interior Department.

“This corridor is one of the highest-traffic regions for unlawful crossings along the southern border, creating significant national security challenges and contributing to environmental degradation,” the department said.

The Interior Department said the land was originally set aside in 1907 by President Theodore Roosevelt for “border protection purposes,” and the Navy will use it to “strengthen operational capabilities while reducing ecological harm associated with sustained illegal activity.”

Since April, the federal government has transferred large portions of land along the southern border to the military, allowing troops to detain migrants attempting to cross the border or arrest people accused of trespassing on military bases.

The process began with a 170-mile swath of land along the border in New Mexico before the government expanded into Texas and Arizona.

While the Interior Department referred to the Southern California lands as a high-traffic area for illegal border crossings, arrests along the U.S.-Mexico border have dropped to the lowest level since the 1960s as the Trump administration continues its crackdown on illegal immigration.

“President Trump has made it clear that securing our border and restoring American sovereignty are top national priorities,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in a statement.

“This action delivers on that commitment. By working with the Navy to close longstanding security gaps, we are strengthening national defense, protecting our public lands from unlawful use, and advancing the president’s agenda to put the safety and security of the American people first.”

The department said it coordinated closely with the Navy to make sure that the transfer is targeted and legal and that it reinforces the “historic role public lands have played in safeguarding national sovereignty.”

Good For Scrap Parts

 

Cry The Beloved Europe?

Saturday, Dec 13, 2025 - 05:00 AM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Nothing bothers the European elite as much as American conservatives praising the European foundations of their shared, but threatened, Western civilization.

Europeans especially resent having their social-welfare state system critiqued by upstart, crass Americans.

Their pique only increases as they push back against the condescending American idea that the U.S. could possibly offer any constructive advice, much less help a more civilized Europe follow the “American model.”

Americans, in turn, are worried that Europe is not just stagnating but is on a trajectory of permanent decline—with dire consequences for the entire Western world.

As for symptoms, the U.S. cites a steadily declining European share of world GDP. It points to Europe’s unsustainable 1.39 fertility rate, which ensures a steadily smaller, older, and costlier native population.

More than ten percent of Europe’s resident population is now foreign-born—some 45 million people. However, the European host, unlike a classless America, does not have a long tradition of melting-pot assimilation, integration, and acculturation.

Unlike America’s mostly Christian-nation immigration patterns, European immigrants are predominantly from the Middle East and North Africa, Islamic, and increasingly anti-Western.

Far too many of Europe’s immigrants profess too little desire to assimilate into what they consider a culturally decadent place—one that, ironically, they have no desire to leave.

The Christian Church, the linchpin of Western civilization, was born in Europe. Yet nowhere do atheism, agnosticism, and open hostility to Christendom grow stronger.

Europe, the birthplace of a dynamic Western military tradition, has been, by contemporary standards and at least until recently, virtually disarmed and unable to protect its own borders or interests.

Europe’s overregulation and war on fossil fuels, combined with a generous social welfare state, have resulted in too little revenue and too many costly dependents.

Americans dare to lecture Europe because the same Western pathologies—open borders, unassimilated immigrants, tribalism, declining fertility, green fanaticism, unsustainable budget deficits, and massive national debt—are likewise beginning to threaten America.

But unlike Europe, millions of Americans at the eleventh hour are galvanizing to stop their own insidious downward spiral.

Silver Smash

 

On Drugs

 

'Consumer' Watchdog Group Bought & Paid For By Big Pharma

Via American Greatness,

The National Consumers League is America’s oldest consumer advocacy organization and a group trusted by the left, especially, to stand up for consumers’ interests.

But according to a review of its tax filings by the Washington Examiner, it has also become part of a web of astroturf groups shilling for the corporate interests of PhRMA, the massive drugmaker trade association that operates in Washington, DC, which donated close to $1 million to it just last year.

The organization’s 2024 tax form, which became available a few days ago, shows that the non-profit spent close to $600 million last year advocating for Big Pharma’s financial interests and policy agenda in Washington, DC, and state capitals across the country.

And a key way in which that advocacy was accomplished was through the National Consumers League, also known as NCL.

The Examiner reports that “PhRMA donated roughly $2 million to NCL between 2020 and 2024, including $875,000 in 2024 alone.”

During that time, NCL has hewed closely to PhRMA issue positions on matters including regulation of insurers that negotiate for lower drug prices for Americans (also known as PBMs), and the 340B drug discount program that disproportionately benefits red, rural America.

But a review of content historically featured on NCL’s website indicates that prior to taking PhRMA money, the group never criticized PBMs or 340B.

When asked for comment by the Examiner, NCL did not deny that their criticism of PBMs and 340B was related to the PhRMA funding, and they confirmed “that contributions from PhRMA support [the group’s] ‘healthcare work.'”

The Examiner has previously reported on apparent astroturf, “pay-to-play” advocacy efforts undertaken by PhRMA.

The Wall Street Journal also ran an exposé about PhRMA’s tactics in the nation’s capital, including what critics say looks like a “buying off” of supposed progressive “identity” groups like Black, Gifted & Whole– a group focused on “Black Queer men”– and MANA, A National Latina Organization.

NCL has also engaged on other issues where major industries have policy issues at stake, including higher interest rate short-term small dollar lending. Some credit unions support regulation of the annual percentage rate attached to such loans, but not the regulation of APRs on overdraft fees, which sometimes exceed more than 1000%.

The Somali Way?

 

Border Tsar Homan Announces Investigation Into Rep. Omar: A Case For Fraud Or Defamation?

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

This week, the lingering allegations over the marital history of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D., Minn.) took an ominous step when Border Tsar Tom Homan publicly acknowledged that the government is looking into the matter.

Rep. Omar has long denied that she married her brother to gain his entry into the United States, but the allegation has continued to rage on the Internet and among her critics.

The question is whether this is a substantive case of fraud or defamation.

Homan stated that he was investigating whether Omar committed immigration fraud, but also noted that the statute of limitations has been an issue.

In his comment to Newsmax, Homan stated:

“I just got advised by a fraud investigator the other day on that. I asked the question, can we review the files? You know, there was immigration fraud involved. The statute of limitation became an issue in the last four years when this was first brought up…Pulling the records now, pulling the files, and we’re looking at it. But this fraud investigator, who I know personally, one of the best fraud investigators in HSI, Homeland Security Investigations, said there’s no doubt he’d review the file. So, I’m running that down this week as a matter of fact, and we’ll see.”

According to her congressional biography, Omar came to the United States with her family in the 1990s. As I have previously noted, the election of a young immigrant to Congress is genuinely remarkable and commendable.

The questions arose regarding her marriage to Ahmed Elmi in 2009. Elmi was back in the news this week with postings highlighting his lifestyle as a “dirty dandy.” Critics charged that he is actually her brother. The couple divorced in 2017, and no DNA evidence has been offered to support the claim that they are siblings.

President Donald Trump and others have been ratcheting up the rhetoric against Omar and the Somali population in Minnesota. Many of us have objected to some of the attacks on Omar as offensive.  As I have previously written, the call for foreign-born U.S. citizens to “go back to their own country” has been made for decades against foreign-born U.S. citizens. However, such attacks are generally protected speech.

The allegation against Rep. Omar is not opinion, but a statement of fact.

Many news organizations have referred to the allegation as “debunked” and “unsupported.”

DeBanking Is Cranking

 

OCC Says 9 Big Banks Took Part In 'Inappropriate' Debanking Practices

Via American Greatness,

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has released a report saying that the nine largest lenders in the U.S. made “inappropriate distinctions” that it used to restrict services among certain customers.

Following the signing of an executive order by President Donald Trump in August of this year, the OCC began reviewing all banks for any current or past practices that effectively barred customers on the basis of political or religious belief.

Wednesday, the OCC released its report, saying that it had found conclusive proof that nine large banks had policies that either refused services to some industries or required higher levels of scrutiny that exceeded the actual financial risks between 2020 and 2023.

Cool

 

Chinese Drone "Mothership" Capable Of Swarm Attack Takes Flight

Whether launched from shipping containers, robotic arms, commercial box trucks, or delivered by heavyweight jet-powered mothership drones, the creativity of military technology developers in designing and deploying loitering-munition swarms has been remarkable to watch.

The latest piece of military hardware to hit our radar is China's Jiutian ("Nine Heavens") unmanned aerial mothership, capable of hauling up to six tons of guided bombs, air-to-air and anti-ship missiles, or entire racks of kamikaze drones.

Jiutian's internal bay can deploy up to 100 kamikaze drones for a saturation-swarm attack, flying in coordinated patterns to strike targets simultaneously and overwhelm defenses.

Jiutian was first revealed at the air show in Zhuhai, in China's southern Guangdong province near the border with Macau, last year. Now footage has surfaced of the mothership drone taking off for the first time.

Broken Arrow

 

Impeachment Articles Filed Against Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

I recently wrote about the absurdity of the Democratic effort to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. I have also opposed Republican calls to impeach judges. Impeachment mania has returned for the midterm elections. However, on the scale of utter lunacy, the call to impeach Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. takes the cake.

This effort is being led by Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), who is running for Senate and has decided that the best way to achieve that distinction is to turn the constitutional process into a mockery.In academic writings, testimony (including at the impeachment hearings of Clinton, Trump, and Biden), and litigation (as the lead counsel in the last judicial impeachment trial), I have long argued against such ill-defined articles for impeachment.Stevens is seeking to impeach Kennedy for turning “his back on science”:

“Today, I formally introduced articles of impeachment against Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. RFK Jr. has turned his back on science and the safety of the American people. Michiganders cannot take another day of his chaos.”

Many Americans welcome Kennedy’s efforts to make food healthier and to challenge the status quo at HHS. Others, like Stevens, have strong objections to those policies. This is a good-faith and worthy debate for us to have. For years, there was little debate on such questions.

Indeed, in the prior Administration, to challenge prevailing expert opinion was to risk being labeled a wingnut or conspiracist. The very same people who are calling for Kennedy’s head were part of the mob denouncing dissenters in the scientific community, or those who remained silent as scientists were fired, censored, and cancelled.

The most anti-science position was to demand compliance with the orthodoxy of the pandemic years. Take Jay Bhattacharya, who co-authored the Great Barrington Declaration and was a vocal critic of COVID-19 policies.

Bhattacharya is now the 18th director of the National Institutes of Health and is working with Kennedy to change the culture of groupthink among health researchers and regulators in the government.

Bhattacharya was censored, blacklisted, and vilified due to his opposing views on health policy, including opposing wholesale shutdowns of schools and businesses. He was recently honored with the prestigious “Intellectual Freedom” award from the American Academy of Sciences and Letters.

He was one of many who were blacklisted for challenging pandemic policies. It did not matter that positions once denounced as “conspiracy theories” have been recognized or embraced by many.

Some argued that there was no need to shut down schools, which has led to a crisis in mental illness among the young and the loss of critical years of education. Other nations heeded such advice with more limited shutdowns (including keeping schools open) and did not experience our losses.

Others argued that the virus’s origin was likely the Chinese research lab in Wuhan. That position was denounced by the Washington Post as a “debunked” coronavirus “conspiracy theory.” The New York Times Science and Health reporter Apoorva Mandavilli called any mention of the lab theory “racist.”

Federal agencies now support the lab theory as the most likely based on the scientific evidence.

Likewise, many questioned the efficacy of those blue surgical masks and supported natural immunity to the virus — both positions were later recognized by the government.

Others questioned the six-foot rule, which shut down many businesses, as unsupported by science. In congressional testimony, Dr. Anthony Fauci recently admitted that the rule “sort of just appeared” and “wasn’t based on data.” Yet not only did it result in heavily enforced rules (and meltdowns) in public areas, but the media further ostracized dissenting critics.

Again, Fauci and other scientists did little to stand up for these scientists or call for free speech to be protected. As I discuss in my new book, “The Indispensable Right,” the result is that we never really had a national debate on many of these issues and the result was massive social and economic costs.

The point is that these attacks were “turning your back on science” by crushing dissent and stopping any meaningful debate on these issues. These same figures were wrong on the science, but now seek to lead another mob to impeach those seeking to change policies and practices at HHS and NIH.

Democrats clearly oppose Kennedy’s initiatives. Fine. Use legislation and the power of the purse to push back on those efforts if you have a majority in Congress. What you should not do is use impeachment to achieve what you could not achieve during the confirmation

Go Back

 

2.5 Million Illegal Immigrants Deported Under Trump Admin: DHS

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

More than 2.5 million illegal immigrants have left the United States under the Trump administration, a “record-breaking achievement” in a year, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in a Dec. 10 statement.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection security agents guide illegal immigrants onboard a C-17 Globemaster III assigned to the 60th Air Mobility Wing for a removal flight at Fort Bliss, Texas, on Jan. 23, 2025. Dept. of Defense photo by U.S. Army Sgt. 1st Class Nicholas J. De La Pena

The 2.5 million figure includes more than 605,000 individuals deported as part of DHS enforcement operations and around 1.9 million illegal immigrants who have voluntarily self-deported since January.

“Since January 20, DHS has arrested more than 595,000 illegal aliens,” DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said. “Illegal aliens are hearing our message to leave now. They know if they don’t, we will find them, we will arrest them, and they will never return,” the department said.

DHS encouraged illegal immigrants to use the CBP Home app, which allows them to notify the federal government of their intent to depart the United States willingly. Those who self-deport via the app get $1,000 and a free flight home.

According to DHS, it has prioritized the removal of the “worst of the worst” criminal illegal immigrants as part of the administration’s push to ensure law and order in the country.

The rapid decline in the illegal immigrant population is showing effects nationwide, such as a “resurgence in local job markets,” DHS said. In October, 12,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy, which followed 431,000 additions in September.

President Donald Trump recently commended DHS Secretary Kristi Noem for a closed, secure border.

“We have a border that is the best border in the history of our country,” he said.

In a Dec. 10 post on X, Noem said that DHS’s accomplishments this year under Trump have been “historic.”

“None of it would be possible without the Homeland Security Advisory Council,” she said. “The men and women of this council provide their experience and insights to help deliver seven consecutive months of zero illegal entries, a revitalized Coast Guard, and more than 2.4 million deportations.”

The council provides the DHS secretary with advice and recommendations on homeland security issues and comprises leaders from state and local governments, academia, the private sector, and first responder communities.

However, the Trump administration’s enforcement against illegal immigrants has faced pushback from lawmakers.

Cooking And Driving

 

Trump Admin Pulls 9,500 Truck Drivers Off The Road For Failing English Tests

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said more than 9,500 commercial truckers have been taken out of service for failing English-language proficiency checks, a cumulative enforcement tally he said highlights an ongoing effort to keep unqualified operators from posing dangers on the nation’s roads.

“We’ve now knocked 9,500 truck drivers out of service for failing to speak our national language — ENGLISH!” Duffy wrote in a Dec. 10 post on X. “This administration will always put you and your family’s safety first.”

The tally reflects cumulative enforcement actions taken since May, when the Department of Transportation reinstated out-of-service penalties for drivers who cannot read or speak English well enough to operate a commercial motor vehicle.

President Donald Trump and Duffy have both said the renewed enforcement is necessary to ensure truckers can understand road signs, communicate with police and inspectors, and follow instructions at checkpoints and weigh stations.

“America First means safety first,” Duffy said in May. “Americans are a lot safer on roads alongside truckers who can understand and interpret our traffic signs. This common-sense change ensures the penalty for failure to comply is more than a slap on the wrist.”

The crackdown comes after Trump signed an executive order in March designating English as the country’s official language. In April, he signed another order directing Duffy to ensure that commercial truck drivers who fail to meet English-language proficiency standards are taken out of service.

“My Administration will enforce the law to protect the safety of American truckers, drivers, passengers, and others, including by upholding the safety enforcement regulations that ensure that anyone behind the wheel of a commercial vehicle is properly qualified and proficient in our national language, English,” Trump wrote in the April order. “This is common sense.”

Trump’s April order scrapped an Obama-era rule under which inspectors could cite truckers for failing English requirements but were not allowed to remove them from service, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration said in a May memo.

Fatal Crashes Prompt Wider Crackdown

The English-proficiency push is part of a broader campaign to tighten oversight of commercial licensing after a series of fatal crashes involving foreign or nondomiciled drivers. Several of those drivers were later found to have failed English tests or held licenses issued in error by states.

In one Florida case, Indian national Harjinder Singh was accused of killing three people after making an illegal U-turn in a semi-truck.

Harjinder Singh is escorted onto an airplane by Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and law enforcement in Stockton, Calif., on Aug. 21, 2025. Benjamin Fanjoy/AP Photo

Officials said Singh—who was in the United States illegally—failed an English exam, answered only two of 12 questions correctly, and could identify just one of four road signs. Despite that, Washington state issued him a full-term commercial driver’s license (CDL) in 2023, and California issued a second CDL in 2024.

Singh pleaded not guilty in September. The Epoch Times reached out to Singh’s attorney for comment at the time but did not receive a response.

Federal reviews have identified similar cases in California, New York, Pennsylvania, and other states, prompting widespread scrutiny of state licensing practices.

Tits And Tats

 

US 'Answers' China By Sending Pair Of Nuclear-Capable Bombers Over Sea Of Japan

On Wednesday we detailed that Japanese and South Korean fighter jets quickly answered a joint Russian-Chinese long-range bomber flight over the Western Pacific. Chinese J-16 fighter jets, two Russian Su-30 fighters and an A-50 early-warning aircraft were part of the provocative flight, which also passed close to South Korea. Russia's Defense Ministry (MoD) had confirmed its Tu-95MS strategic bombers and China’s H-9 strategic bombers conducted the eight hour flight over the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea and the Western Pacific - but that at no time was any country's airspace violated.

Washington has quickly injected itself into the ratcheting situation, coming amid a diplomatic and economic standoff between Japan and China, by sending US nuclear capable bombers on patrol over the Sea of Japan.

Handout photo from Japan's Ministry of Defense 

Japan's government confirmed its fighter planes joined the US bomber patrol, which was clearly a show of force signaling China and Russia.

"We confirmed the strong resolve of Japan and the United States not to allow any unilateral change of the status quo by force, as well as the readiness of the Self-Defense Forces and the US military," Japan's Defense Ministry said in a statement.

The fresh exercise with the US Air Force was conducted in "an increasingly severe security environment surrounding our country" - it said.

The flight included a pair of US B-52 bombers, escorted by Japanese F-35 stealth fighters and three F-15 jets. Beijing had presented the prior, longer flight as routine and in accord with international law.

"We consider it a grave concern from the standpoint of Japan's security," Japan's Chief of Staff, Joint Staff General Hiroaki Uchikura, commented of the prior Chinese-Russian aerial patrol.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded dismissively, saying "The Japanese side has no need to make a fuss about nothing or to take this personally."

All of this is taking place as a carrier strike group is sailing close to Japan, and after weekend PLA drills saw monitoring Japanese planes come under radar lock. The US State Department has condemned this, saying "China's actions are not conducive to regional peace and stability."

Much of these tensions hearken back to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's words to parliament last month wherein she left open the possibility of Japan sending its military to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

What Is Poor?

 

Affordability Crisis: Challenging The Poverty Line

Authored by Michael Lebowtiz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management, wrote a provocative Substack essay, Part 1: My Life Is A Lie, that is sparking a debate among economists and raising awareness of the affordability crisis. It’s not just the wonky economists debating the merits of his article; The Washington Post, CNN (News Central), FOX Business (Charles Payne), and social media are also critiquing it.

Michael uses the official poverty line calculation and what he deems the “Mathematical Valley” to help his readers better appreciate why affordability is becoming a hot topic. 

The Poverty Line

Per Michael Green:

But there was one number I had somehow never interrogated. One number that I simply accepted, the way a child accepts gravity.

The poverty line.

I don’t know why. It seemed apolitical, an actuarial fact calculated by serious people in government offices. A line someone else drew decades ago that we use to define who is “poor,” who is “middle class,” and who deserves help. It was infrastructure—invisible, unquestioned, foundational.

This week, while trying to understand why the American middle class feels poorer each year despite healthy GDP growth and low unemployment, I came across a sentence buried in a research paper:

“The U.S. poverty line is calculated as three times the cost of a minimum food diet in 1963, adjusted for inflation.”

I read it again. Three times the minimum food budget.

I felt sick.

This article summarizes Michael Green’s perspective and opposing arguments regarding the poverty line. Bear in mind, as you read on, that there is no “right” poverty line. However, what Michael Green has successfully done is ignite a conversation about the large number of Americans who feel left behind economically and repeatedly raise affordability as a key political issue.

The 1963 Poverty Line Benchmark

Green’s analysis centers on the poverty line, which was established in the early 1960s by Mollie Orshansky. The original formula she developed was simple: take the cost of a basic basket of food for a family, multiply it by three (on the assumption that food accounted for about one-third of a household’s budget), and use that as the poverty threshold.

Her benchmark was then adjusted for inflation each year, but the underlying assumptions about household spending and needs haven’t been updated since. Per Green:

Orshansky’s food-times-three formula was crude, but as a crisis threshold—a measure of “too little”—it roughly corresponded to reality. A family spending one-third of its income on food would spend the other two-thirds on everything else, and those proportions more or less worked. Below that line, you were in genuine crisis. Above it, you had a fighting chance.

Notably, Green emphasizes that Orshansky’s poverty line served as a threshold. Those with incomes beneath this threshold were in crisis.

Orshanky’s Poverty Line Is Outdated

Green emphasizes the items we spend money on, and their costs compared to food prices have changed significantly since then. For example, he points out:

• Housing costs as a percentage of income rose significantly.

• Cell phones didn’t exist.

• Healthcare costs have become the most significant expense for most families.

• A second income became a necessity for many families after the formula was devised, leading to increased childcare expenses.

• He also notes rising college and transportation costs.

Simply, feeding a family no longer constitutes a third of total family budgets.  To wit, he states:

Housing now consumes 35 to 45 percent. Healthcare takes 15 to 25 percent. Childcare, for families with young children, can eat 20 to 40 percent.

Michael Green’s punchline:

Which means if you measured income inadequacy today the way Orshansky measured it in 1963, the threshold for a family of four wouldn’t be $31,200.

It would be somewhere between $130,000 and $150,000.

What does that tell you about the $31,200 line we still use?

It tells you we are measuring starvation.

Green’s Data Analysis

Green supports his theory with a basic family budget based on national averages. He applies it to a family earning the median household income of $80,000. The results, as we share below, cast significant doubt on the value of the current $31,200 poverty line. Furthermore, they argue that at least half of the nation is “living in deep poverty.” Per Green:

I wanted to see what would happen if I ignored the official stats and simply calculated the cost of existing. I built a Basic Needs budget for a family of four (two earners, two kids). No vacations, no Netflix, no luxury. Just the “Participation Tickets” required to hold a job and raise kids in 2024.

Using conservative, national-average data:

Childcare: $32,773

Housing: $23,267

Food: $14,717

Transportation: $14,828

Healthcare: $10,567

Other essentials: $21,857

Required net income: $118,009

Add federal, state, and FICA taxes of roughly $18,500, and you arrive at a required gross income of $136,500.

The graph below shows the cumulative price growth for $1,000 across many of the spending items Michael Green identifies above. As shown, except for transportation prices, all the others have significantly outpaced food prices. Thus, to Green’s point, a poverty line based on a steady price-consumption relationship for these goods and others in relation to food prices has become grossly ineffective.